(23 October 2019 ) DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:Brexit: Forward then backward

For the first time, UK members of Parliament have delivered a majority in favor of a deal to leave the European Union. MPs voted by a majority of 329 to 299 to support Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal at its second reading, which paves the way for the UK to complete its departure.

But things didn’t all go the government’s way.

The government lost a vote on the timetabling of the legislation which would mean that it is unlikely that the deal can be completed by the 31 October deadline.

The prime minister announced that the legislation is now on hold; earlier in the day he stated that if this stage of the process was lost, he would pull the bill and seek a general election. At this stage, we take the prime minister at his word, although we are alert to the fact that opinions can change. Our base case of an election before Brexit remains intact.