(29 October 2019 ) DAILY MARKET BRIEF 1:Fed FOMC should weaken USD

It seems that nothing is much of a surprise according to market participants’ view which are betting on a third Fed rate cut tomorrow, in line with last week soft ECB meeting amid Mario Draghi’s departure. Yet we would temper the view considering the strong dissent of a good part of policymakers following the September rate decision as well as Fed Governor Powell “mid-cycle adjustment” comment in July rather than stating a rate reduction cycle. Without mentioning the contradicting Markit and ISM manufacturing activity data, it looks like the September job report confirms solid growth in 2H 2019 although inflation shows slight weakness. As a result, the prospect for further rate reduction in 2020 is limited, although the latter would be accommodating given the budget deficit in 2019. A rate cut confirmed on Wednesday would be a negative event for the greenback.