Big day for the US today. First markets will get the first release of GDP then a few hours later the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. But let’s not forget ADP private employment (expectations 110k). US 3Q real GDP is expected to rise 1.5% q/q, decelerating from 2.0% in Q2. The US has to look inward for growth as recent quarters have been led by personal consumption expenditures. As for the Fed, we expect the FOMC to lower their policy rates by 25bp. There will be no updated economic forecasts, therefore the focus will be the post-meeting statement and Chair Powell’s press conference. There is a significant risk that the committee will signal that a pause is now more likely following three straight 25bp cuts. However, with the focus on growth risk over inflation concerns the perception of prolonged trade tensions could keep the dovish members in easing mode.