A Close Look At Friday’s Key Market Events

A Close Look At Friday’s Key Market Events

$SHY, $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM

The Import and Export Price Indexes for the US, which will be released to the market Friday, will help in the Fed’s assessment of matters when they meet next week on 15-16 March.

I. Import and Export Price Indexes for February: Friday, 11 March, at 8:30a EST

Note:

Why it is important

  1. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is the PCE Price Index, yet it looks at a range of available indicators to assess the progress it is making toward the inflation side of its dual mandate. This report will be a part of that assessment.
  2. The report offers telltale data on price trends for import prices, excluding Crude Oil, as well as export prices, excluding agriculture
  3. This report helps market participants glean what type of pricing power there might be for US businesses

A closer look

  1. There has not been a monthly advance in the non-fuel import price index since March 2014
  2. Prices for imports from China have not increased on a monthly basis since ticking up 0.1% in December 2014
  3. Import prices from Japan have not increased on a monthly basis since March 2014
  4. The price index for overall imports was down 6.2% Y-Y in January (non-fuel import prices down 2.9% Y-Y)
  5. The price index for overall exports was down 5.7% Y-Y (non-agriculture export prices down 5.0% Y-Y)

What’s in play?

US Treasuries and related ETFs (SHY, SCHO, TLT, TBT, TBF)

Index ETFs

  1. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  2. PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ)
  3. iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)

Currencies

  1. USD/JPY
  2. EUR/USD

Fed Funds Futures

II. Economic Reports

Friday early this economic report is scheduled to be released to the market: Export prices ex-agri (Consensus N/A), Import prices ex-Crude Oil (Consensus N/A).

Note:

III. Earnings Reports

Friday early these companies are scheduled to report earnings to the market: LCUT, PGNX, BKE, KIRK, HIBB, CTRN, GCO.

Stay tuned…

Paul Ebeling

HeffX-LTN

 

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