Bitcoin (BTC) is the next frontier. No technologies have gone where crypto assets and related innovations are heading. Yet, within this space, reoccurring patterns have been observed, even though the movement of industry fundamentals, chart technicals, and social metrics seems sporadic and unpredictable.
This theme was only cemented recently, as a leading cryptocurrency trader divulged that eerie lines can be drawn between 2014/2015’s bear season and the one seen today.
Bitcoin Could Rally Into 2020 Halving
The day-to-day valuation of BTC may seem to come straight out of left field. But some would beg to differ. Over Bitcoin’s decade-long history, the asset has gone through a number of so-called “boom and bust cycles.” Although the numbers and timelines involved in these multi-year moves seem entirely non-correlated, with the difference between the peaks of 2014’s and 2017’s parabolic rallies amounting to $19,000, some would argue that this budding market has an extremely slow, yet ever-present heartbeat.
Analyst Filb Filb recently issued a chart on TradingView that revealed “staggering pre-halvening similarities [between] 2015 [and] 2019.”
The chart in question outlined the U.S. dollar value of BTC from mid-2014 to current, while also doing its best to predict future price action. According to Filb’s drawn lines, BTC may have already established a long-term bottom at $3,150 in mid-December, when the asset briefly moved under its a key moving average. Interestingly, the same series of events occurred when the flagship cryptocurrency bottomed in 2015, a year and a half before 2016’s halving.
And as such, if history rhymes, not repeats, over the next 441 days starting February 18th, Bitcoin may begin to embark on a recovery, potentially reaching $10,000 just before the halving.
Other traders expressed bullishness in response to Filb’s optimistic chart. One trader, the so-called “bag of XMR,” also noted that the convergence and potential subsequent divergences of two moving averages, the overall market structure, and the timing of buy-side and sell-side influxes, could be accentuating impending moves to the upside.
Filb and Bag aren’t the only industry commentators to have observed eerie, even scarily accurate parallels between previous drawdowns in Bitcoin’s history and the current one.
Alex Melen, an American entrepreneur with a budding passion for cryptocurrencies, recently noted that the last time that BTC crossed under its four-day 50 and 200 moving averages, Bitcoin bottomed. And as the same occurred in mid-November, Melen touted confidence.
Trader Jones, a crypto-centric businessman, noted that current Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings and chart structures are similar to those seen in early-2015, echoing the comments made by Filb.
While this is all well and good, some have used historical analysis to tout bearish sentiment. Princeton graduate Murad Mahmudov is the best example. The well-respected crypto trader, who has been dubbed the “Parabolic Trav of the 2018/2019 bear market,” has noted on multiple occasions that past price action may indicate that $1,700 is a near-term possibility for Bitcoin.
As reported by NewsBTC on a previous date, citing historical trends, technical levels, and underlying fundamentals, BTC could enter a period of “hell” in spring 2020. After divulging an array of details, the analyst concluded that he explained that Bitcoin’s “steady support” will be found at an MA300 of around ~$2,400. However, he made it clear that Bitcoin could “wick down” to as low as MA350~400 in the $1,700 range, “due to past patterns and how particularly overstretched the 2017 bubble was.”
The $333,000+ BTC Forecast
Filb’s recent quip comes after he issued an extensive tweet storm about why it isn’t illogical to believe that Bitcoin could eventually surpass $333,000.
After combining data sets and crunching an array of numbers, the analyst deduced that Bitcoin likely processes a minimum of 0.03% of all global financial transactions on any given day. Through the use of regression and statistical analysis, taking the swelling worldwide debt sum of $274 trillion and combining it with BTC’s current level of adoption, Filb determined that a fair valuation for Bitcoin is ~$74 billion.
While this indicates that BTC is currently fairly valued, Filb explained that the crypto asset will continue to see its use swell in the years to come. In fact, harnessing data from the Internet industry’s cycles, it was revealed that if all pans out for Bitcoin, $333,000 could just be in the cards.
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