Chicago PMI Surges To Highest Since March 2011 (As Employment Falls)

Another day, another 'soft' survey shows improvement. Following Dallas Fed's surge yesterday, Chicago PMI printed a dramatically better than expected 66.2 (60.0 exp) – the highest since March 2011.

This print is above the highest estimate (forecast range 58 – 64.7 from 31 economists surveyed) and is a 4 standard deviation beat…

To the highest since March 2011…

Under the hood it was oddly disappointing…

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion – highest since Feb 1974
  • Employment fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction
  • Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Order backlogs rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Business activity has been positive for 12 months over the past year.

Oddly, only 3 factors rose in October compared to September (compared to 7 in September)

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