In the last 60 years, the US economy has never suffered such a long contraction in core durable goods orders (20 months) without officially being in recession.
It's probably nothing… US Durable Goods New Orders Ex Transports YoY down for the 20th straight month…
Headline (short-term) data beat thanks to notably lower revisions.
- Durable Goods Orders unchanged MoM (exp -1.5%, prior revised markedly lower from +4.4% to +3.6%)
- Durables Ex Trans -0.4% MoM (exp -0.5%, prior revised lower from +1.3% to +1.1%)
- Capital Goods New Orders Non-Defense, Ex-Aircraft +0.6% (-0.1% exp but prior revised from +1.5% to +0.8%)
But for the 4th month in a row, Capital Goods Shipments (Ex Air) fell MoM – down 0.4%, missing expectations of a 0.1% rise, and historical data was revised lower.
Thank the lord of war for saving the economy again…
- 5.8% drop in Computer new orders
- 0.5% drop in Machinery
- 0.5% drop in Fabricated products
- 2.0% drop in Communication equipment
- 2.5% drop in Electrical equipment and appliances
- 21.9 drop in Nondefense aircraft and parts
- 23.6% surge in defense capital goods new orders
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