After yesterday’s second estimate of UK Q1 GDP, which reaffirmed the preliminary 0.3% q/q print, markets will be focussed on the second estimate for the same quarter in the US. The initial US release indicated that activity slowed to a softer-than-expected 0.2% (saar). Since then, downside news on the trade deficit for March, which may have reflected the impact of the ending of the West Coast port strike, has underpinned a market expectation of a downward revision to -0.8%. Lloyds Baknk has pencilled in a 0.5% GDP decline, partly reflecting an upward revision to March retail sales, which might support household consumption more generally, as well upside news on capital expenditure during March. The Chicago PMI for May is likely to receive some attention ahead of next Monday’s ISM manufacturing index for May. However, the relationship between the two indicators is often tepid.In the euro area, attention will revolve around German retail sales and French consumer spending in April for a guide on whether household outlays can help to drive a pickup in Q2 GDP from the 0.4% q/q Q1 print. Both are expected to show a strengthening in April compared to their monthly averages over Q1. Domestically, our Business Confidence Barometer for May is also released.
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