Europe Round up Usd Hits 12-1/2-Yr High Vs Yen, Gbp falls After Uk Gdp Numbers – may 28th, 2015

Market Roundup

  • USD/JPY hits 12-1/2 year high at 124.30, highest since Dec 2002.
  • EUR/USD lifts to 1.0951 fm 1.0890.
  • AUD/USD at its lowest level in 6 weeks. Plays 0.7654 fm 0.7762.
  • DXY down 0.8% fm 97.775 Wed high, 96.956 lows today.
  • Greek Govt , negotiating team at Brussels group aims to close deal.
  • ECB Constancio: Working on assumption that Grexit won’t happen.
  • Fed Williams expects above trend US growth rest of the year.
  • EZ May Business climate 0.28 vs previous 0.33 revised. 0.35 expected.
  • EZ May Economic sentiment 103.8 vs previous 103.80 revised. 103/5 expected.
  • EZ May Consumer confidence final -5.5 vs previous -4.6. -5.5 expected.
  • EZ May Cons Inflation expectation 3.6 vs previous 0.7.
  • UK Q1 GDP 2nd release 0.3% q/q, 2.4% y/y vs previous 0.3%/2.4%. 0.4%/2.5% expected.
  • UK Q1 Bus Invest prelim 1.7% q/q, 3.7% y/y vs previous -0.9%/3.7%. 1.0% q/q expected.
  • Switzerland April Trade 2856mln vs previous 2497mln revised. Exports fell 1.3% in real terms.
  • Switzerland Q1 Industrial orders -5.0% y/y vs previous 2.5%.

Economic Data Ahead

  • (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Jobless Claims (May 23 wk) (mkt 271k, prev 274k).
  • (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Continued Claims (May 16 wk) (mkt 2.221 mn, prev 2.211 mn).
  • (1000 ET/1400 GMT) Pending Home Sales Index (Apr) (mkt +1.0% m/m, prev +1.1% m/m)
  • (1100 ET/1500 GMT) EIA Weekly Petroleum Statistics.

Key Events Ahead

  • (1145 ET/1545 GMT) FRB Minneapolis’s Kocherlakota on monetary policy; Helena, MT.

FX Recap

EUR/USD is supported above 1.0900 levels and currently trading at 1.0934 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.0949 and low at 1.0888 levels. Pair is trading higher on the back of rumours that a Greek deal is on the makes. Despite there’s no official confirmation on a debt-deal between Greece and its creditors. Today German Import Prices came with positive numbers. Initial support is seen at 1.0859 and resistance is seen around 1.1041 levels.USD/JPY broke the 124.00 levels and posted a daily high at 124.28 levels and low at 123.48 levels. Pair is currently trading at 124.15 levels. Today Japan released retail sales data with negative numbers. Pair hit the June ’07 high of 124.14, stops from 124.15 taken out. 124.28 new trend/multi-year high, 125.65-75 Oct/Dec ’02 highs now eyed. Currently, the pair trades 0.38% higher at 124.10, heading towards fresh 12-year highs reached at 124.30 in mid-Asia. The USD/JPY pair accelerates gains largely on heavily yen selling after the BoJ pushed back its timeline for reaching its inflation target to fiscal 2016. Japan investor interest in foreign bonds will remain strong. Near term resistance is seen at 124.85 levels and support is seen at 123.22 levels.GBP/USD is supported below at $1.5350. It made an intraday high at 1.5383 and low at 1.5301 levels. The pair took a breather in its downslide and is seen struggling around 1.53. The pair keeps losses in reaction to news that the second estimate of UK Q1 GDP reading showed the UK economy slowed its pace of growth compared to the final quarter of 2014, while the reading confirmed the first estimate. Initial support is seen at 1.5258 and resistance is seen around 1.5371 levels.USD/CHF is supported below 0.9500 levels and trading at 0.9466 levels and made intraday low at 0.9449 and high at 0.9502 levels. Today Switzerland released trade balance data with positive numbers. Near term support is seen at 0.9285 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9571 levels.AUD/USD is supported below 0.7700 levels and trading at 0.7658 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7759 levels and low at 0.7652 levels. Australia’s capex second estimate 2015/16 was lower-than-expected. Pair opened Thursday 0.7733 and traded 0.7683-0.7762; last at 0.7690. Pair was in gently recovery mode ahead of capex reaching 0.7762 – prior 0.7756. Pair hit 76.4% Fibonacci of the 0.7534-0.8164 move before finding support. The Australian dollar was the biggest loser across the FX space, dropping below the key 0.7680 support, after poor capex data highlighted concerns over Australian economy’s transitions from mining to non-mining investment. Initial support is seen at 0.7632 and resistance at 0.7752 levels.

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