Forex Fundamental Analysis – The fed and the dollar


The fed and the dollar

EURUSD trading plan:

After the Fed hiked rates four times in 2018, traders now expect the central bank to halt its monetary tightening policy this year as risks to the economy mount. U.S. manufacturing production slumped 0.9 percent last month, the deepest drop in eight months. The US is waiting for a recession in 2019? Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal’s appeal as an alternative asset. Euro and gold have a direct correlation. Investors expect the European Central Bank to maintain its easy monetary policy against a backdrop of slow growth, tepid inflation and political uncertainty. This factor will limit the strong growth of the Euro.

Trading recommendation: Buy 1.1280 and take profit 1.1335.

The fed and the dollar

GBPUSD trading plan:

British retail sales rebounded strongly in January as discounts attracted shoppers. Compared with a year ago, retail sales were 4.2 percent higher in January, the biggest annual rise since December 2016. A recent survey from the British Retail Consortium showed shops enjoyed the fastest sales growth in seven months. This is a good signal for the UK economy. The British Pound was further supported by David Lidington’s comments, saying that the UK government might be able to re-negotiate the deal or delay the Brexit term scheduled for March 29.

Trading recommendation: Buy 1.2930 and take profit 1.2985.

The fed and the dollar USDJPY trading plan:

Markets will be keeping abreast of the next round of trade discussions between the U.S. and China in Washington this week, as the two sides race to reach a deal. Both the United States and China reported progress in five days of negotiations in Beijing. Donald Trump said on Twitter the talks in Beijing were "very productive." Traders cheered signs that the trade war between the world’s two largest economies isn’t escalating. U.S. consumer sentiment improved in February, recovering from a near-two-year low measured. Consumers’ long-term inflation expectations fell to the lowest level recorded in the past half century. This factor indicates an increase in the value of shares. USDJPY and S&P500 have a direct correlation.

Trading recommendation: Buy 110.55 and take profit 110.99.

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