Gold is showing little movement in the Wednesday session, after recording considerable losses on Tuesday. In North American trade, spot gold is trading at $1263.94 per ounce. Gold June futures have edged lower on Wednesday, trading at $1265.20. On the release front, the sole event was Crude Oil Inventories, which came in at -3.6 million barrels, compared to the estimate of -1.1 million. On Thursday the US releases two major indicators – Core Durable Goods Orders and unemployment claims.
President Trump has his sights set on tax reform, both for corporations and individuals. Trump is expected to make a key announcement about his tax proposal later on Wednesday. The corporate sector would see significant tax relief, as Trump is expected to propose reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%, and lowering the tax on multinationals’ overseas profits from 35% to 10%. However, any tax reform proposals from the White House will require a stamp of approval from Congress, so Trump’s proposal should be viewed as a blueprint that is a long way off from becoming law. It will be interesting to see the reaction to Trump’s tax plan. Trump’s first 100 days in office have been rocky, so it will be a significant step forward for the president if Congress and the stock markets give a thumbs-up to his plan. However, if the president is short on details, as has often been the case, the ensuing disappointment from investors could send the dollar downwards and gold prices higher.
Gold Lower Ahead of Trump Tax Plan
US consumer confidence indicators continue to point to strong optimism, but there was some disappointment as CB Consumer Confidence dropped to 120.3 in April, missing the estimate of 123.7. What is troubling analysts is that strong consumer confidence numbers have not translated into increased consumer spending, a key component of economic growth. This trend has been labeled the “hard/soft discrepancy” (confidence being ‘soft’, while actual spending being ‘hard’). This was underscored in March retail sales numbers, which came in at a flat 0.0%, shy of the forecast. Next up is Preliminary GDP on Thursday, which is expected at 1.3 percent. An unexpected GDP reading could have a sharp impact on EUR/USD.
US Consumer Confidence Falls in April More than Expected
Wednesday (April 26)
- 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.1M. Actual -3.6M
Thursday (April 27)
- 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.4%
- 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 241K
*All release times are GMT
*Key events are in bold
XAU/USD for Wednesday, April 26, 2017
XAU/USD April 26 at 12:50 EST
Open: 1263.56 High: 1267.32 Low: 1261.13 Close: 1263.94
- XAU/USD has showed limited movement throughout the Wednesday session
- 1260 remains a weak support level
- 1285 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1260 to 1285
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1260, 1232 and 1199
- Above: 1285, 1307, 1337 and 1367
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
XAU/USD ratio has shown minimal movement this week. Currently, long positions have a majority (60%). This is indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving to higher levels.