The International Grains Council (IGC) published new estimates for the global wheat and corn markets in 2015/16 yesterday. The estimates for wheat are now closer to those of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Wheat production has been upwardly revised by 10 million to 715 million tons – the USDA’s estimate is slightly higher at 719 million tons. According to the IGC, global demand and production should be balanced. Whereas the IGC had still been predicting a 6 million ton deficit in the forecast it published on 23 April, demand was revised up 4 million tons in yesterday’s forecast, notes Commerzbank.The USDA is predicting a slight market surplus of 2.35 million tons. Although the US wheat price briefly shed nearly 1.6% following publication of the figures, it recovered in the later course of trading and closed at 487 US cents per bushel. The corn forecasts issued by the IGC and the USDA continue to differ considerably. While the IGC envisages global corn production of 961 million tons, the USDA predicts a significantly higher 990 million tons. Global corn demand was once again revised upwards by 5 million tons to 974 million tons by the IGC, while the USDA assumes a figure of somewhat in excess of 990 million tons. Consequently, the USDA anticipates a balanced market, whereas the IGC expects to see a deficit of 13 million tons. In response to the IGC’s forecast, the US corn price gained by more than 1% to 353 US cents per bushel yesterday, added Commerzbank.
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