This month, the US dollar has
gained significantly against the Singapore dollar. The USD/SGD has risen from
1.3627 to a high of 1.3753. This is an almost 1% increase. This year, the dollar
has gained by more than 2% against the Singapore dollar. The weakness in the
latter is attributed to the ongoing political uncertainties in the country and
because of a stronger USD.
In overnight trading, the SGD
gained slightly against the USD after a government report said that the economy
will expand by 3.3% this year. This was a slight increase from the previous
estimate of 3.2%. This data was released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore
(MAS), which performed a survey of private-sector economists. In the third
quarter, the economy expanded by 2.2%, which was better than the 2.1% in the
same period a year ago.
This growth will come from the
finance and insurance sector which is expected to increase by 6.9%, which will
be higher than the previous prediction of 6.7%. The laggards will be the
manufacturing sector, which is expected to grow by 7.4%, down from the previous
estimate of 7.6%. The construction sector is expected to contract by 3.5%.
In addition to the GDP numbers,
the survey found that the headline and core inflation will be at 0.5% and 1.7%
respectively. The core inflation strips the volatile food and energy prices.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 2.1%. The biggest risk according
to the surveyed economists was the ongoing trade tensions between United States
In the chart below, the 14-day
and 28-day EMA are in line with the price of the pair. The RSI has continued to
remain along the 47 level. The likely determinant of the pair today will be the
inflation numbers from the United States.