US data ahead to favour a September Fed rate hike – Danske

FXStreet (Barcelona) – The Danske Bank Research Team, previews the US data releases in this week, and further forecasts the payrolls to print a 230K number, which would support their September Fed rate hike view.

Key Quotes

“We expect data in the coming week generally to confirm our expectation of improved economic momentum in the US following the temporary soft patch in the spring.”

“We estimate an increase to 53.3 in the June manufacturing ISM from 52.8 in May. Regional PMIs received so far generally suggest an uptick in the ISM index and with demand picking up, we believe we are past the bottom in the ISM.”

“We also expect labour market improvement to continue. Our models suggest a gain in employment of 230,000 in June, supported by a solid increase in construction employment and continued healthy increases in service sector employment. This would leave job growth running at a 240,000 monthly pace on average over the past three months. A pace which, if sustained, should move the core of the FOMC in favour of a first fed funds rate hike in September, in our view. In particular, if the gauge on wage inflation, the average hourly earnings index, shows a faster pace of growth in line with the quarterly ECI (employment cost index). We estimate the unemployment rate declined from 5.5% to 5.4%.”

“We expect the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence to increase to 97.5. This is a significant increase but will still leave the survey at a lower level than in the first few months of the year, when consumer confidence was boosted by the rapid decline in gasoline prices.”

The Danske Bank Research Team, previews the US data releases in this week, and further forecasts the payrolls to print a 230K number, which would support their September Fed rate hike view.

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