USD gathering traction in the medium term – BAML

FXStreet (Edinburgh) – According to analysts at BAML, the greenback could face upside pressure in the upcoming months.

Key Quotes

“The dollar struggled once again in June despite signs that US data was turning a corner amidst a continued rise in German sovereign yields and unwind of USD longs. However, we continue to see solid US fundamentals as driving USD strength as the year progresses”.

“We continue to expect policy divergence and US growth outperformance to underpin the dollar, particularly amidst positive signs in Greece. We maintain our EUR/USD forecasts at 1.00 for year-end 2015, but now see it at 1.05 by Q3 2015 (from 1.02). Year-end USD/JPY and GBP/USD forecasts remain at 125 and 1.49, respectively. In the dollar bloc we lower NZD to 0.68 and 067 (from 0.70 and 0.68) for Q3 and Q4 2015, respectively. We raise our 2016 USD/CAD profile, now seeing it at 1.30 for all of 2016 with upside risks to our 2015 forecasts”.

“The Fed raised the bar for hikes by wanting to see ‘decisive evidence’ of growth before hiking rates, suggesting risks of a later-than-September hike. A key risk to our USD forecasts if is the Fed does not hike rates this year”.

According to analysts at BAML, the greenback could face upside pressure in the upcoming months…

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